The first round of the QMJHL playoffs get underway this evening, with the Acadie-Bathurst Titan visiting the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada in Game 1 of that series. All other series will commence tomorrow night. Some will be over before the next episode of Survivor is aired in it's entirety (assuming Game 4 in Saint John doesn't go too long). Others should prove to be downright entertaining. Here's a look at how I see things shaking down. Regular season point totals are in parenthesis after each team name.
#1 Halifax Mooseheads (120) vs. #16 Saint John Sea Dogs (47)
Having the 16th place team participate in the QMJHL playoffs is akin to teams like Denmark and Norway in the top division of the World Junior tournament. Ten out of ten times, you know the outcome. I love how on the Q site's (admittedly pretty handy) head to head profile page you can see what the season series between these two teams were this year... as well as last year! How the Sea Dogs did against Halifax in 2011-12 (Saint John won that season series 7-1, for the record) has about as much bearing on this series as who would win a bear baiting competition between Brett Gallant and Jody Shelley (Joel Theriault would beat both of them, for the record).
One positive to this series is that there's no real need to provide a detailed breakdown, thus allowing me to concentrate harder on the matchups that will undoubtedly be much more closely contested. The Sea Dogs are about to get smoked. The End.
Prediction - Halifax in 4
Saint John could win if... A nuclear device strikes HRM. Or the CHLPA successfully pulls off a swift uprising and the entire Mooseheads roster goes on strike. For the record, I'd bet on the former happening far sooner than the latter.
#2 Baie-Comeau Drakkar (93) vs. #15 Sherbrooke Phoenix (51)
This series should prove to be twice as close as the Moose/Sea Dogs series. Sadly, that's not saying much. The Phoenix actually fared pretty darned well on the year, all things considered. Their 22 wins are particularly impressive considering it took eight games for them to capture their first one. However, the Drakkar are quick, talented and quite well balanced. Led by euros Petr Straka and Valentin Zykov, the Drakk possess five 20 goal men and five point-per-game players, while Philippe Cadorette provides solid if understated goaltending. Like the previously mentioned series, look for this one to end as quickly as possible, affording Baie-Comeau just their second series win since the 2003 Conference Finals...hey, remember Conferences???
Prediction - Baie-Comeau in 4
Sherbrooke could win if... It's not happening. However, I could very easily see goaltender Jacob Gervais-Chouinard stealing a game in this series for the Phoeix or at the very least taking a game to OT. That's about where it ends, however.
#3 Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (90) vs. #14 Acadie-Bathurst Titan (59)
The Armada are a team that haven't really gotten much respect this season. Halifax has stolen most of the headlines. Rimouski and, to a lesser extent, Baie-Comeau have been credited for their strong seasons. However, the Armada have quietly prodded along in the weaker West Division, piling up wins and putting them in prime position to perhaps surprise a few teams along the way. One of the defensive forces of the league, guys like Xavier Ouellet, Samuel Carrier and Etienne Marcoux will hold their own against opposing shooters while up front it will most likely be scoring by committee.
The return of Stefan Matteau Jr. will only help spread the offense around on team that would probably consider it's play in the attacking zone to be it's Achilles heel.
Prediction - Blainville-Boisbriand in 5
Acadie-Bathurst could win if... The Armada's offense totally dries up and the Titan's scoring stars take over. These are two very different teams facing off against one another, but in the end the team commitment to defense on the Armada trumps such high flyers as Zach O'Brien, Michel Beaudry and Marc-Olivier Brouillard. As well, Marcoux outduels Jacob Brennan probably 9 times out of 10. This is a series in which most are predicting a five game win for the Armada, but probably can't see this series get extended to even a sixth game.
#4 Rimouski Oceanic (91) vs #13 Gatineau Olympiques (63)
If not for a plethora of injuries to l'Oceanic, there's a very good chance the Drakkar occupy this spot (as it was, there was only a two point differential between the two clubs). Instead of the expansion Phoenix, Rimouski now faces a Gatineau team in which it's biggest wildcard stands behind the bench. Over the years, Benoit Groulx has developed this sort of mystique as a guy who can get it done in the postseason. Be it an unexpected championship (2003) or crazy series upset (2006 vs. Chicoutimi). Unfortunately, Groulx hasn't had the same touch in his second stint behind the O's bench. Even if he still did, this series appears to be a mismatch.
This Rimouski team won't wow you like the Lecavalier/Richards/Crosby teams did. However, they get the job done. Serge Beausoleil's guys can pretty much play it any way you wish - high scoring, grind 'em out defensive, wide open or very controlled. They are one of the more adaptable teams in the league, which in turn makes them a troublesome foe come playoff time.
Prediction - Rimouski in 5
Gatineau could win if... Their best players play over their heads and take full advantage over a Rimouski team still nursing some bodies. Guys like Hyka and Reway can change a game on their own. They have a solid group of two way forwards in Taylor Burke, Adam Champman and Emile Poirier. If they stay out of the box (which they haven't all year) and tighten up defensively (which they haven't all year), they could make things interesting. It's an extreme longshot, however. A six game loss is possible. Taking Rimouski to seven would be phenomenal.
#5 Quebec Remparts (89) vs #12 Chicoutimi Sagueneens
Remember when this used to be the series we all hoped for? Saint Patrick vs. King Richard? The gamesmanship? The fireworks? Ironically, when it did happen, it was a non-event on the scoreboard and a huuuuuuuuge event in another sense. Nowadays, it's just another series. A Quebec team that was expected to nip at Halifax's heels (or even finish first overall outright) by many only to fall short of the mark versus a Chicoutimi team that has seemingly spun it's wheels for much of the last decade.
There's some great individual talent on both sides but at the end of the day Quebec is simply better. The Remps offensive weapons (Adam Erne, Anthony Duclair, Logan Shaw, Mikael Grigorenko et al) against Chicoutimi's defensive corps plus a marked advantage behind the bench makes all the difference in this one.
Prediction - Quebec in 5
Chicoutimi could win if... Quebec stinks up the joint. Let me take you back to January 27th of this year. Remparts at Wildcats. Quebec basically came out and failed to execute in a way I had not yet seen under the Roy regime. The end result was this. As good as this Quebec team is, they've laid their share of eggs during the regular season. As well, Chicoutimi has some impressive names on their bench with the likes of Charles Hudon, Laurent Dauphin, Guillaume Asselin and Mathieu Gagnon. As well, Christopher Gibson is as good between the pipes as anyone in the league when he's on. However, the odds of the Remparts playing subpar for four out of seven are long. The recent return of Grigorenko from the Buffalo Sabres is just another nail in the Sags' coffin.
#6 Moncton Wildcats (87) vs. #11 Victoriaville Tigres (73)
Moncton should win. They should hold the advantage offensively. They should have the advantage on the backend. They should be able to outcoach their opposition. They should get good enough goaltending to outlast their opponent. However, this year's Wildcats squad has been inundated with "shoulds" since day one. The offensive depth the Cats contain alone should make this series a forgone conclusion. There's noone on the Tigres that can match up against the pairing of Jonathan Narbonne and Jonathan Racine when those two are dialed in. And Alex Dubeau has steadily picked up his play throughout the season to the point where he can be counted on to keep his team in close games.
Of course, Dubeau is a bit of a question mark going into the opening game of this series. In this morning's Times & Transcript, the goaltender said he was ready to go. Danny Flynn said "We'll have to wait and see". Of course, Danny is one of those hockey guys where if you asked him what he had for breakfast, the answer will invariably be "We'll have to wait and see".
I say barring something totally unexpected, #31 will be back between the pipes for Moncton tomorrow night. And barring something slightly less unexpected, he'll be back for round two as well.
Prediction - Moncton in 6
Victoriaville could win if... Well, first off, if Dimirtij Jaskin was forced out of the lineup for any substantial amount of time, all bets are most definitely off right then and there. If Moncton totally looses it's composure and go on one of their patented streaks of inconsistency and Victo is able to take advantage, things could get dicey for the Wildcats. Yannick Jean's boys play a strong systematic game while still keeping things open enough to make guys like Angelo Miceli, Phillipe Halley, Phillipe Maillet and the ultra underrated defenseman Petr Sidlik very dangerous with puck on stick. As well, Brandon Whitney is as steady as they go in nets, his big frame more than capable of winning a couple games in itself. This Wildcats team is nearly unstoppable when on. If they stay on, the "what ifs" become a non-factor and this series gets even shorter. Oh... and I would have no issue seeing copious amounts of a line with Yannick Veilleux, Dimitrij Jaskin and Phillip Danault by the way. I'm sure Veilleux agrees.
#7 PEI Rocket (86) vs. #10 Val d'Or Foreurs (76)
I can recall the last time the PEI Rocket were in Round 2. To put that in perspective, I had gotten engaged the previous Christmas (my wife and I have been married seven and a half years), I was living in a basement apartment (I've lived in my current house for eight and a half years), I was well removed from my on-air debut as a commentator (I'm wrapping up my eighth season behind the mic). I traveled to the Charlottetown Civic Center for Game 6 of their second round series against Moncton with my future wife and a small group of friends. One of the topics of conversation on the way over was would the Red Sox finally win a World Series that year (they have since won two). The main topic on the way back home was how the Cats would contain Sidney Crosby and Rimouski in round three (the answer was Ryan Salvis). The date was April 12th, 2004. When James Sanford scored on Jonathan Boutin 8:23 into OT, it marked the last moment to date in which the PEI Rocket were a participant in the second round of the QMJHL playoffs.
I feel that will change in a couple weeks' time.
These two teams are remarkably similar in many ways. They can both provide flash and dash offensively, led by offensive catalysts on either side (PEI has scoring leader Ben Duffy and Josh Currie, Val d'Or has 50 goal man Anthony Mantha and Anton Zlobin). They can bang bodies (Dunn, Henley, Poudrier, Gelinas, meet Oligny, Vance, Graves) and they have solid if unspectacular netminders in Antoine Bibeau and Francois Tremblay. I give PEI the edge based on coaching (I'm a big fan of Gordie Dwyer and his systems) and a stronger overall commitment to defense. However, it's not a huge stretch.
Prediction - PEI in 7
Val d'Or could win if... They score one more goal, pretty much. This has all the makings of a tight, hard fought affair. Get PEI in the box and Mantha, Zlobin and Brandon Hynes could turn the offensive zone into their own personal playground. Val d'Or has a roster full of guys usually referred to as "character players" This is code for "pain in the posterior region to play against". As the season wound down, I came to the conclusion that PEI could make life tough for any team in the league not located in Halifax (of course, that could be because I've been well versed in the Rocket's ability to consistently hand the Wildcats their lunch thus leaving me overly impressed, but I digress). However, of all teams for them to draw in round one, the Foreurs might be the most challenging - if only because Val d'Or is probably the team most capable of beating PEI at their own game. This could very well be the most entertaining series of the first round.
#8 Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (84) vs. #9 Drummondville Voltigeurs (80)
The Huskies find themselves in a position to realistically win their first playoff series since 2008. They are a pesky little team that likes to play wide open, as their second ranked offense and 12th ranked defense can attest. At times I'm sure Andre Tourigny feels like he's aged five years while trying to get results out of such a run and gun outfit, but the Huskies came out of the season with 40 wins in their back pocket - certainly a fair consolation for playing an oft-criticized style. The Huskies boast five players with 29 or more goals and the league's leading scorer among blueliners in Mathieu Brisebois. Defense is supposed to win games - especially in the playoffs - but in this case, there's just too much offense on the side of Rouyn-Noranda for Drummondville to keep pace.
Prediction - Rouyn-Noranda in 6
Drummondville could win if... The Huskies defense and goaltending let them. From the blueline back, the Volts have a clear advantage. In fact, they even have a pretty decent reply to the offense of Brisebois in Nikolas Brouillard and Jordan Murray. Up front, there aren't any big name guys, but there are some pesky ones. A guy like Jerome Verrier is the epitome of frustrating. He'll score a goal (which he did 35 times this year) and take a psychological advantage from you at the same time. Guys like Verrier, Jeremie Malouin, and Matthew Boudens are simply not fun to play against. As quick as the Huskies are, if you bottle up their speed, they become alot less impressive. In nets, rookie Louis-Phillipe Guindon quietly put together an impressive season and as a result, holds the upper hand among netminders between both clubs entering the series. If Mario Duhamel's troops can stay patient, retain that netminding advantage, keep the Huskies to the outside and start getting them well acquainted with the boards, Drummondville could very well find themselves in round two.
Oh and I stopped playing proline years ago because I never won anything. So keep that in mind after reading all this.
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