Back on November 21st, I went through the pros and cons of the notion of the Moncton Wildcats trading up to go for a run as contenders for the President's Cup. We are now almost seven weeks removed from then... and I think another assessment is in order with the trade deadline less than a week away.
Since I wrote that post, the Cats have gone 10-5. Seven of those victories came consecutively. Of those five losses, four of them have come against teams below them in the standings. The fifth loss was against the #1 ranked Halifax Mooseheads... however, the Moose were missing their entire first line, their top defenseman and their starting goalie that night, and only a third period surge by Moncton made the final score a "respectable" 8-6 as a badly understaffed Halifax squad actually held a lead of 8-2 at one point in the second and dictated the flow of the first 35 minutes. Needless to say, the last few weeks have been a suitable cross-section of the season as a whole; that is to say, it's been up and down like a yo-yo. Before I get into my synopsis of the team as a whole, I'd first like to give my thoughts on this team from a position to position standpoint.
Let's start with the biggest powder keg of them all - goaltending. Alex Dubeau and Cole Holowenko have proved serviceable thus far. In fact, Holowenko has proven to be a great "70-30 split" type backup in my estimation. After being thrown to the wolves during his first game (9-4 loss in Blaineville), he rattled off five straight wins and looked good in the process. Despite a few hiccups, the BC native has proven to be a solid pickup. Dubeau's numbers have improved steadily after a horrific start to the season - a 2.99 GAA, .886 SP and 17-11-1 record going into the 2013 portion of the schedule.
I've talked to many people about the Wildcats goaltending situation and the schools of thought range from "goaltending needs to improve markedly" to "goaltending is great but defensive breakdowns need to be fewer". In my opinion, it's a combination of both. The mental and physical mistakes being made by this club's skaters (forwards as well as defensemen) have been very telling. Some nights they look airtight (3-0 wins versus Blaineville and Halifax respectively), other nights there have been more than one Keystone Cops-esque breakdown that leads to defeat (pick most games against PEI or the aforementioned 8-6 loss to the Moose). On other occasions, just as things are running smoothly, a weak goal will manage to find it's way past one the Moncton netminders (the win at home against Baie-Comeau which was achieved in spite of the starting goaltender performance that day or the loss at home to Val-d'Or in which goaltending severely dictated momentum).
I'm not about to sit here and point the finger at the masked men of this club as the primary reason why the Cats have been unable to gain traction in the Q standings thus far, but I will say this much: the three times Moncton advanced to the league finals, they did so with the following goaltenders: Corey Crawford (2004), Josh Tordjman (2006) and Nicola Riopel (2010). All three of those netminders either outright won a series for the Cats or at the very least kept their respective clubs very much in them - and that was by necessity, I might point out. That's also keeping in mind the fact that all three of those teams had superior a defense corps in front of these goalies. When that has to happen three times in a club's history to ensure they advance, it stops being a coincidence. Unfortunately - and with all due respect to this year's team and it's goaltending - it's very hard to say with certainty that the netminders on this season's squad could do the same.
Defense has been touched upon above, but what I said in November rings true. The last time the Wildcats won the President's Cup, their top four was as follows: David Savard, Mark Barbierio, Brandon Gormley, Simon Jodoin. In other words, three players who have appeared in or on the cusp of making the NHL and one player who went on to be captain of this club and one of the more versatile blueliners in recent team history. Alex Wall, a then-19 year old who was a #2 defenseman on a strong Quebec Remparts squad the following year was brought in to be the #4/5 guy in Moncton in 2010. That's the kind of defensive depth required to win in this league. Does Moncton have that same depth - and just as importantly, that same amount of experience - this season?
Unfortunately not. This is not to say it's a subpar back end. It's just not as deep. The runaway top two on this year's squad are a pair of Jonathans - Racine and Narbonne. I - along with the rest of the Cats' fans and coaches - am a huge fan of both. However, I cringe at the thought of one or both going down with an injury. We've already seen what life without Racine is like while he was day-to-day with an ankle issue just before Christmas. That life was not pleasant. Guys like Sam Roussy and Jacob Sweeney are coming along nicely... however, "coming along" is not the same as "being there". The number of mental mistakes being made by this group as a whole on at least a semi-regular basis is still a bane of contention... and the lack of experienced depth exposes this fact more than it should on a contending team.
Up front, the team can get a goal from any of the top three lines at virtually any time. Problem is, the consistency in which that occurs is problematic. Outside of Dimitri Jaskin, there hasn't been a foward on this club that's carried the offensive load game in and game out this season. An even more alarming fact is that the third line and guys like Ross Johnston and Conor Garland have been as much a key offensive component in the wins procured during Jaskin's departure for Ufa as the first line. The Saulniers and Veilleux have great stats on the season but the number of games in which they do not factor into the scoring has to be cause for concern (as an aside, I would like to see Jaskin and Veilleux on the same line for a couple games, just to see if the two like-minded players could find some chemistry). It's great to have depth... and I'm loving the way the third line has produced this past month or two... but once again, when you rely on anyone on your bottom six to provide consistent offense, they had best be point per game players or close to it in order to validate that philosophy. That player does not exist in that context on this team.Therefore, stability would be a requirement to ensure positive results as the playoffs grind along.
At this point, I would like to point out that I have used the most consistent part of this post has been the word "inconsistent". This concerns me... it should concern you as fans... and I can bet it concerns the people involved with the day to day operation of this team.
In other words, to enhance the odds of success for this club, an upgrade of sorts at all three positions would be ideal. Given the market this year, goaltending would be next to impossible to improve upon within the league. This would put a higher premium on the need to add depth of experience and talent both on the back end as well as up front. Something in the way of two solid top four dmen and at least one more top six forward would go a long way towards bringing this club closer to the ultimate goal. The fact that there are five or six other teams at the moment that are more or less equal or better prepared for a long playoff run not only makes the market more competitive, it puts the onus on the Cats to do something in the next six days to allow their proverbial horse to stay in the pack or perhaps pull away.
Then, there is the issue of assets... or lack thereof. Less than stellar results in the last two or three QMJHL entry drafts have left the number of viable, top shelf trading chips available very low. The prime draft picks available for trade are mostly beyond 2013, which will obviously slow the inevitable rebuild in Moncton considerably. This is not to say it's a lost cause. Of course, a run could be made. Assets could be removed from the cupboards. However, if this team wants to go down that road, it's painfully obvious that they can forget about being competitive again in three seasons.
This leads me to the ultimate question to be asked at this critical juncture of the season: would there be greater long term reward in this team selling off assets in an effort to contend in years to come?
It's an unusual situation in Moncton this season... many fundamental pieces are in place for the club to contend, a few additional components are required to ensure greater certainty of a longer playoff run and the cupboards are not greatly stocked to acquire those players. On the other hand, the key pieces that are already here would undoubtedly cause a bidding war and fetch a sizable fortune if placed on the open market. Take a look at the 2008-2009 Saint John Sea Dogs, who that year were so sure about their place among the league's upper echelon that they had T-shirts printed for the occasion (I still wear my "Our Team, Our Time" shirt - purchased for $2 in the spring of '09 - when out for a walk or run). By this time four years ago, it was painfully obvious that continuing down the path to contention would be disastrous for the Dogs and despite still being in the upper half of the standings, they decided to offload key components of that team in the name of looking forward to the years ahead. It turned out there was alot to look forward to. Three regular season titles, two Presidents Cups and a Memorial Cup title later and I'm sure any uproar created by the trades of Alex Grant and Chris DiDomenico have long been forgotten... and the desirable talent that would be available out of Moncton this season greatly trumps what the Dogs had to offer that year.
Of course, that winning skein to our south has not gone unnoticed by Wildcats' ownership. Robert Irving has already made it obvious that he wishes to contend this year. He will tell anyone who will listen that this will be the season in Moncton. However, Irving is a very intelligent man and very savvy in the business world. Sometimes in the business world, the greatest asset at one's disposal is patience and foresight; knowing when to buy, when to sell and knowing when one or the other is too much of a risk. Although I don't necessarily expect it, a part of me would be incredibly eager to see what would transpire in the ensuing seasons if this team offloaded any number of key contributors. I sympathize with Mr.Irving inasmuch as I would love to see this team win a national title... and in a way, it would be a shame to eliminate the potential of not having a banner to hang from the rafters of the Coliseum next fall.
However, the even greater possibility of two or three banners to hang is an intriguing proposition as well.
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