Saturday 9 February 2013

The Storm Before The Storm

Last night's 8-5 Wildcats victory over Halifax could be analysed using any number of descriptions. There seemed to be equal parts skill, mistakes, end to end action, emotion and strategy. For anyone watching on TV, I hope you kept this game on the entire time (as there were junctures in which fans of either side would've been tempted to pull the plug). To those who were there in person, you definitely got your money's worth.

Going in, I was pessimistic... because my personal history shows that when I expect a Wildcats defeat, they pull out a victory and vice-versa (the best proof of this being the 2006 Memorial Cup, in which I predicted a Cats loss in the semi-final (fortunately I was wrong) and a win in the final (unfortunately, I was wrong)). My main concern was the events of the previous weekend would slightly outweigh the prep work that went into this weekend's games. I was wrong... but not dead wrong.

Based on their play in the first, the Cats could've perhaps taken a lead against last weekend's opponents Shawinigan and Drummondville with their play. It wasn't enough to take control over the Moose. Halifax bases most of their game on puck possession. The longer they have it, the less the opposition does. Combine that with speed and depth particularly on the top three forward lines and you have a team in which you'd best not make too many mistakes because the puck will be in the back of your net (see Halifax goal #2 in particular). By the time Halifax held a 2-0 lead, the game seemed to take on a bit of the feel of the last time the Moose played in Moncton. Then came the turning point.

That would be when Danny Flynn did two things. With a minute left in the first, he swapped the left wingers on his top two lines, placing Ivan Barbashev on the Salunier line and Yannick Veilleux on the line with Phillip Danault and Dimitrij Jaskin. Then, he changed his matchups, taking the Saulnier line off against the MacKinnon/Drouin/Frk troika and placing the new Danault line in it's stead. It only started to prove effective on their first shift, during which the Cat trio forced the puck deep into Moose territory and Jaskin beat Zach Fucale on a shot along the ice (which would be a recurring theme during the game... both Jaskin scoring and Fucale being beat along the ice).

The second period was essentially a carbon copy of the first game the Moose played up here this season. The Wildcats won almost every battle for the puck, they forced the Moose to the outside, received a number of big saves by Alex Dubeau (who was a key to the victory despite the goals against) and got very much in the face of Fucale, none more effectively than Chris Lalonde and his two goals from in tight. By period's end, the Cats won the period in goals 4-0, led the game 5-2 and showed the potential to keep up with the league's top team.

The third was a case of the Cats not playing as poorly as they did during parts of the first but still letting their foot off the gas. The Moose capitalized on virtually every mistake Moncton made and kept things very interesting until the other newly constituted line of Barbashev/Saulnier/Saulnier put the game away, Allain completing a 3 on 1 to perfection and giving the Cats a 7-5 lead. An empty netter and a few stray foam balls on the ice later and the Cats had their second win of the season against Halifax.

Despite the win and a number of positives I'm sure the team took from the game, I'm finding it hard to picture this Moncton team defeating that Halifax team in a seven game series. It should be a close series... one that could go back and forth on virtually a shift by shift basis. On the plus side, this Moncton team has a feel for itself totally unlike the one that took to the ice in the early portion of the season as well as December. The hiccups they encounter are usually rectified in a few shifts or a period, not over the course of several games. The Moose do not have a player quite like Dimirtij Jaskin, and this newly constituted line involving he, Veilleux and Danault seem to be a probable answer to the potent top line of the Moose. Danault in particular brings something that is absolutely critical to any success against Halifax's stars. A skilled checking center with speed and hockey sense. As well, I feel Danny Flynn could outcoach Dominic Ducharme during crucial times in a possible series matchup, which I will balance out by saying that is a tough challenge in it's own right.

On the other side, Halifax punishes teams who commit mistakes against them unlike any team in the league. They have speed, skill and the ability to confidently send forwards in three deep in the offensive zone. They have been the more consistent of the two clubs and have the impressive ability to bounce back quickly from poor shifts, periods and games.

The other factor in all this is the nature of those two Moncton victories over Halifax. In the first game, Moncton played virtually flawless. It was as close to a "perfect game" as you'll probably ever see. The second game took an outstanding effort in the second period and a poor effort from Halifax in periods two and three for Moncton to pull out the victory. Although coming back against a team like that is certainly a feather in Moncton's cap, it tells me that for Moncton to defeat Halifax in a playoff matchup, Moncton will have to play impeccable, "foot on the gas pedal" type hockey or Halifax will have to play a notch or two below their capabilities for four games out of seven. Although I want by any means possible to see Moncton pull this task off, I think anyone could understand why I feel it's a very tall order. I have seen enough evidence to justify it.

The Cats will face snowmageddon instead of the Rimouski Oceanic tonight before heading over to the island tomorrow afternoon to face the Rocket. L'Oceanic will instead enter the fray at the Coliseum on Monday at 7PM.

In Woodstock, the Commandos held in but couldn't seal the deal, falling to Woodstock 3-1. Perhaps the most promising aspect of this game was the play of Alex St-Arnaud. Despite struggling since the resumption of his career with the Commandos, the former Val d'Or Foreur netminder put 43 big saves up on the board to keep the visitors very much in it for as long as possible and received second star honors for his effort. If this is any indication, it would appear the work in practice with JF Damphousse and Sebastien Dupuis appears to be paying off for St-Arnaud. Hopefully this is a stepping off point to a successful stretch drive for the recently reacquired goalie.

Dieppe is back at it tomorrow evening, facing off against an uber-powerful Yarmouth squad at 7:30PM. The late start is due to a speed skating tournament slated for the AJL earlier in the day, however this scheduling change should compensate for the less than stellar weather. If you're looking for something to do tomorrow night, come on over and see how the up-and-coming Commandos match up against the perennial powerhouse from Nova Scotia's south shore.

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